On Tuesday, President Joe Biden announced his re-election bid through a three-minute video that emphasized the importance of preserving freedom and rights. As he prepares to run for a second term, Biden is facing an uphill battle to convince the American electorate that he is the best choice to move the country forward.
Despite being the incumbent, Biden’s path to re-election is far from easy. He has never been particularly popular among the electorate, and his approval ratings have fluctuated since he assumed office in January 2021. In addition, the 2022 midterm elections saw Democrats lose their majority in the House of Representatives, further undermining Biden’s political capital.
Biden’s campaign strategy will need to be carefully crafted to overcome these obstacles. He may have the advantage of incumbency, but that does not necessarily translate to an easy victory. Previous presidents who ran for re-election faced their own challenges, and Biden’s situation is unique in several ways.
George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign was buoyed by a feeling of victory in the war on terror, even as the Iraq War was beginning to unravel. Similarly, Barack Obama rode a wave of post-racial support to his 2012 victory, even as the Tea Party movement threatened to upend his presidency.
Donald Trump’s 2020 loss to Biden is a more recent reminder that incumbency does not guarantee victory. However, Trump is also running again, and he is dominating early polling among GOP candidates. The prospect of a head-to-head rematch with Trump is weighing heavily on people’s minds, with a recent NBC News poll indicating that substantial majorities of Americans do not want either Trump or Biden to run for president in 2024.
The fact that Biden is 80 years old is also a concern for many voters. Half of those who do not want Biden to run again cite his age as a “major” reason why. Trump, who is 76, is not much younger than Biden, but the concerns over Biden’s age reflect a broader lack of enthusiasm that has bedeviled him since his candidacy in 2019.
Despite these challenges, Biden is moving forward with his re-election bid. His decision to run was not a given; there had been speculation that he might opt to retire after one term, particularly given his age. However, there were no signs of any real attempt to replace him on the ticket, and Biden’s team likely recognized that his absence from the race could open the door to a potentially messy scramble to replace him at a time when the GOP is still consolidated around Trump.
One of the biggest challenges for Biden’s campaign will be generating enthusiasm among the Democratic base. In 2020, he was able to rely on anti-Trump sentiment to motivate voters, but that may not be enough in 2024. He will need to find a way to inspire progressives while also appealing to more moderate voters.
There is a risk that Biden could swing too far to the center, in emulation of Bill Clinton’s “triangulation” strategy ahead of the 1996 campaign. While a more centrist approach may make sense given the realities of a split government, it could also alienate progressives who are looking for bold, transformative policies.
Biden’s team will need to carefully balance these competing interests to craft a winning campaign strategy. They will need to focus on building a broad coalition of support, while also energizing the Democratic base. They will need to counter Republican attacks on Biden’s record, while also highlighting his accomplishments. And they will need to navigate a political landscape that is constantly shifting and evolving.
In short, Biden’s path to re-election will be challenging, but not impossible. He will need to run a smart, strategic campaign that effectively communicates.