One year into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the situation remains dire, and there seems to be no end in sight. Both sides are digging in and preparing for major offensives in the near future, with neither willing to negotiate. Although Ukraine achieved a strategic victory and the West demonstrated unity, the war is far from over.
The correlation of forces favors Russia, given its larger GDP and population, and intact territory. Putin has staked his entire presidency on this war and must win it. Meanwhile, Ukraine is reliant on the support of the EU and NATO, which have supplied its military with ever-increasing and lethal hardware. However, despite Ukrainian bravery, the Ukrainian army has not yet achieved a decisive breakthrough that would change the course of the war.
The next phase of the war promises to be even more challenging for Ukraine, given that offensive operations are inherently more challenging than defense. Even if Ukraine were to launch a successful offensive operation, the war would not end, and the possibility of a nuclear strike from Russia is always looming. If Ukraine were to make any significant gains, it could prompt Putin to escalate the conflict dramatically.
Russia has suffered multiple strategic setbacks in this war, but these do not necessarily translate into gains for the United States and its allies. While the West benefits from Russia’s weakness, the moral aspect of waging a war against Russia at arm’s length while only Ukrainian lives are at stake cannot be ignored. The risk of escalation, even if not nuclear, remains high, and the possibility of NATO joining the fight directly cannot be ruled out.
In conclusion, the ongoing war in Ukraine is far from over, and neither side seems willing to negotiate. While Ukraine achieved a strategic victory and the West demonstrated unity, the war has entered a new phase, and the possibility of a nuclear strike from Russia is ever-present. The situation is challenging, and the West cannot give Ukraine the tools to “finish the job” without risking direct involvement in the conflict. The struggle for power continues, and the end is not yet in sight.